ILI Head Tetiana Khutor spoke on Hromadske Radio about the potential benefits Russia could gain from lifting oil sanctions

The decision by the United States to ease restrictions in the oil sector may create favorable conditions for Russia and complicate the European Union’s sanctions policy. This was stated by the Head of the Institute of Legislative Ideas, Tetiana Khutor, during a broadcast on Hromadske Radio.

“Even within Russia, officials are openly discussing the possibility of taking advantage of the situation. In particular, the Russian leadership has noted in its domestic information space that the country should use this moment to its benefit. Around the world, it is well understood who may gain from such a decision,” the expert said.

She noted that the actions of the United States are largely driven by domestic political interests. For Washington, it is important to demonstrate that the administration and the president are in control of the situation, placing U.S. interests above those of other partners.

“At the same time, for Ukraine and the EU this situation appears unfavorable. A full restriction on Russian petroleum products was planned within the framework of the EU’s 20th sanctions package, but the current steps by the United States create a dissonance with this policy,” Tetiana Khutor explained.

The Head of ILI recalled that earlier there had been active discussions about a license allowing India to purchase Russian oil – but only oil that was already at sea as of March 5. Now, according to her, the issue concerns broader relaxations in the oil sector.

“Although formally these decisions are temporary, such permissions are often extended. If the restrictions last only for a short time – for example, just a month – there will be no significant changes in the market. However, if the period is longer, Russia may receive additional profits, and oil prices may stabilize at a level favorable for it,” Tetiana Khutor outlined the risks.

The expert also stressed that it is important for the EU not to weaken its own sanctions policy. On the contrary, Brussels should maintain a firm stance, adopt the 20th sanctions package, and insist on a complete restriction of Russian oil’s access to the European market.

“The EU should also try to convince the United States to rejoin a stricter sanctions regime after the temporary pause ends. At the same time, Washington’s further steps may remain unpredictable, particularly due to developments around Iran. For this reason, new unexpected decisions in the field of energy policy and sanctions can be expected in the near future,” the Head of ILI concluded.